A response to a friend

Im a bit lazy, but I may coalesce this into something more organized later

Hey Sean,

A long analysis, and similar to something else I read - it didn't say the roots went that far, but certainly that the Liberal dominated '90's were a bit of a mirage hiding some underlying negative trends. I agree the situation is different and has fed into Harper's intention to shift the country and its politics well to the right; and essential to that is the elimination of the Liberal Party, as he beleives that the public will never vote for an NDP true to its roots. There is a great question; will the NDP jettison its raison d'être? If so, it becomes nothing more than a reincarnation of the Liberal Party, undoubtedly losing its left wing (which would likely reform a leftist party); and really what is lost is just the pedigree; the party and its politics are the same; or it can't get rid of that side, and we are in an fundamentally different era of a Conservative hegemony.

Whither the Liberals completely? Well thats a matter that will only be known on October 19, 2015. True, the Conservatives inroads into immigrant communities is robbing the Liberals of one of their traditional support bases, as well as the overtures to the Jewish community (Ken Dryden went down because of this). And yet..the Liberals have seats in every province except Alberta; and Alberta has a few bellweather seats now...outside of Quebec and Ontario, the Liberals didn't do much worse than last time (although granted last time was atrocious); they lost in Ontario mainly due to vote splitting and is placed to regain seats there; and in Quebec is still the second largest party. The NDP will have a hell of a time with its caucus and the potential for embarrassment is huge and has already started, thanks to the Honourable Member for Las Vegas.

The party is fundamentally undemocratic internally; didn't run on its strengths, and failed to promote its principles (and it does have principles). Yet we now have the time free of both the constraints of propping up a distasteful gov't and even from dealing with being the official opposition while doing a major reboot...granted there's not much silver lining, at all, in being the third party. Right now its the NDP's to lose but the thing is, they have a bit of a rigged deck in their Quebec caucus; even if they were all good members - in some senses they're lucky, because now a western based party has to deal with a much more nationalist wing and it has control of the caucus.

Reading Tom Axworthy today, one thing is clear; the NDP as the third party treated us like their main enemy; and I think we now have to do the same. The Liberals never were and never will be a social democratic party, don't have those ideals, and any merger without the NDP jettisoning these will not be broadly supported. And right now, why would the NDP volunteer to be rid of them? We have to face the fact, that the Conservatives, whatever we do, will have 2, maybe 3 mandates in a row, and concentrate on regaining ground and letting the NDP maintain its principles. Because otherwise, I don't think the NDP will ever be able to defeat the Conservatives (unless of course, it morphs int the Liberals policy wise, and becomes the control freaks that the Tories are, to keep their left wing quiet - a result I'm not sure I'd like, either...

NDP up, up and away?

So, the NDP has “surged” ahead of the BQ here in Quebec, and is hard on the heels and one poll suggests has already overtaken the Liberals into second place. So much for this election not changing anything.

Obviously this is big news and bad bad news for the Liberal Party; but its not very clear what these results could actually translate to on the ground. If the NDP is pulling support primarily from the BQ – which seems to be the case from the Ekos survey http://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/EKOS-Quebec.jpg , then vote splits could benefit either the Conservatives or the Liberals; or both, instead of electing actual NDP members.

One of the key factors will be the ground game; the NDP just doesn’t have the structure to manage getting the vote out, especially against the BQ. That may not matter if the NDP vote holds up into the 30’s; but it’ll depend on how motivated their newfound supporters are.

The other factor is the quality of NDP candidates. Like most of the parties seeking to fill up all 308 seats in electorally barren areas, for years most of the NDP candidates in Quebec read like the membership list of the McGill University NDP club, ie young lefty Anglophones from Ontario. I know Layton has made Quebec a priority, and having Mulcair in Outremont may have helped candidate recruitment, but this surge in support in general may hit a wall in some ridings when the voter realized who their NDP candidate actually is; and make it easier for the BQ to draw the voters back.

However, these numbers can’t be ignored and will have an impact. If they hold, it’s a disaster first and foremost for the BQ, a prospect that even the most anti-socialist Albertan redneck will be relishing. And it could mean a sea change in Canadian politics.

Eliminating the BQ from the coalition calculation, and you have a very manageable minority situation with the Liberals and NDP. The forum research poll referenced here: http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in_reach_of_official_opposition_says_new_forum_research_poll_04-21-2011 suggests 149 seats for the Tories, 71 for the NDP and 64 for the Liberals, with the BQ down to 24. Now I hate predictions of seat distribution from polls (a site like http://www.electionprediction.org/ , looking at it seat by seat, is much more indicative) but if this follows suit, it won’t take much for the NDP and the Liberals (combined here at 135 seats) to overtake the Tories – just 7 seats, well within the swings in the next few days.

And with the BQ’s hold on Quebec broken, even more ridings will now be in play. NDP results in Quebec will also strengthen the hand of Mulcair, the most obvious successor to Layton, in winning the leadership.

And think about this; if the Liberals lose seats, or worse come in third, like it or not Ignatieff’s days are numbered. Bob Rae – a former NDP MP, MPP, and Premier, could become Liberal leader, with Mulcair – a former Liberal MNA and provincial cabinet minister – his counterpart in the NDP. That’ll crank up the debate on “merging the left”….

Dumont - Concordia Grad...

What impact, if any, will there be, that Mario Dumont just might be the first premier of Quebec who graduated from an English University...better question, would he be the first premier?...I don't know, are there any McGill grads in the lineup? I rather doubt it.

And then...what, pray tell, does that mean for the English community in Quebec? Dumont is the only potential premier who could get away with softening the language law, if he wanted to...and gee, it would be nice to shake lose a couple of west island ridings, wouldn't it....

and in other news, temperatures in hell have hit record lows...

they're both smiling. time to buy a parka for Lucifer....

Mary Heikkinen

Mary Heikkinen
February 8, 1910 - December 24, 2006

Christmas. The word conjures up so many feelings, and moods, and memories.

And for me, the strongest memories Christmas brings, are of Gran.

Gran. Or Aunt Mary. Or Ma. Or Baba Mary. Mary Heikkinen managed to gather quite a few names in her 96 years. For me, though, she was Granny; and Granny meant Christmas.

In that sacred memory of childhood, especially, where the season lives large in its full majesty, and magic, and glory, oh there her presence looms large. If a season, if a day, can belong to anyone, Christmas Eve belonged to her.

At first, we were but occasional participants, living on the west coast, but time and tide brought us to Thunder Bay, and for me, the magic years of childhood Christmases were spent at Gran's.

And what feasts they were! An endless parade of food, always with special attention to those of her children who abhorred onions, all lovingly and carefully prepared the hours and days before. And the baking...the days and weeks prior no doubt saw a production line that rivalled the city's largest bakeries; the smells of their effort lingered in the air, and, well, almost overpowered the smell of cigerattes that Granny's was also famous for.

And the people...being at Gran's on Christmas Eve meant hosting a never-ending stream of family and friends, well wishers of all kinds, so many in and out, that I swear a revolving door had been installed just for that night. If I know you, if you know me, chances are we first met on one of those Christmas Eve's at Gran's. But there can be no doubt, who the star of that show was.

I have no idea, what it was like for those of you who dropped in and out of our little feasts, but for me, the experiences instilled in my a feeling far beyond a child's sense of mystical Christmas. My sense of family, of what that meant, was born, grew, and was reinforced on those Christmas Eve's; a sense, that I was connected, part of something larger, beyond just me, my Mom and Dad. That, I belonged to you; and you belonged to me. The depth, and breadth, of our family was revealed on those nights; bonds that were forged and reforged by Gran, every Christmas Eve.

Ah, its true, we haven't had those Christmas Eve's in a long while; a victim of time and circumstance. And, perhaps nothing can ever live up to the memories of childhood. I hope not...

I hope, we remember, each of us, to keep faith with her, and with each other, to keep our bonds well with each other, now that we can't count on her, to do it for us. For that would truly honour her memory; that truly is her legacy to us.

So many family, so many friends, have gone before her, and prepared her way; I couldn't help think, that perhaps they finally couldn't bear another Christmas without her, and so...

My Gran passed away on Christmas Eve; her day, now and forever more. She has kept her Christmas well, and earned her sleep.

Merry Christmas Gran, я тебе кохаю

Pachelbel...

OK, I have to admit, I love Canon in D...but this guy doesnt....very funny take on a famous piece of music....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdxkVQy7QLM

Wars, and rumours of war....

So, who are the high profile Liberals looking to run? Top of my list is Desiree McGraw, who wrote the ground-breaking Liberal Environment Task Force report that got rave reviews from Elizabeth May, Leader of the Green Party, and who recently ran for VP English of the LPC. Also rumoured to be running: Marc Garneau, Liza Frulla, Martin Cauchon, Justin Trudeau, Brigitte Legault…

The real question, are what ridings are open? Ahuntsic will surely nominate experienced MP Eleni Bakopanos to take back the riding from the Bloc; but right now the open seats are Outremont and Lasalle-Emard…not enough for the current talent roster. Without warm Senate seats or other postings to offer, will the likes of Lucienne Robillard or Bernard Patry (recently nominated) move on to free up some seats? What about Mount-Royal; another potential battleground where long-time Liberal (and key Brison supporter) JJ Schneiderman is the local favourite…be interesting to see where the chips fall…

Ok...to business....

After reading (very good) blogs like Warren Kinsella, Paul Wells, Andrew Coyne, Calgarygrit, and Jason Cherniak, among many others, who do I think I am, starting one on the same thing? Good question...

Under new management

Thanks to the graciousness of the previous host, we have taken over this little space of the web. Hope we can do something with the place, just have to sweep the floors and dust of the tables, hope to welcome you all here soon, with something....