NDP up, up and away?

So, the NDP has “surged” ahead of the BQ here in Quebec, and is hard on the heels and one poll suggests has already overtaken the Liberals into second place. So much for this election not changing anything.

Obviously this is big news and bad bad news for the Liberal Party; but its not very clear what these results could actually translate to on the ground. If the NDP is pulling support primarily from the BQ – which seems to be the case from the Ekos survey http://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/EKOS-Quebec.jpg , then vote splits could benefit either the Conservatives or the Liberals; or both, instead of electing actual NDP members.

One of the key factors will be the ground game; the NDP just doesn’t have the structure to manage getting the vote out, especially against the BQ. That may not matter if the NDP vote holds up into the 30’s; but it’ll depend on how motivated their newfound supporters are.

The other factor is the quality of NDP candidates. Like most of the parties seeking to fill up all 308 seats in electorally barren areas, for years most of the NDP candidates in Quebec read like the membership list of the McGill University NDP club, ie young lefty Anglophones from Ontario. I know Layton has made Quebec a priority, and having Mulcair in Outremont may have helped candidate recruitment, but this surge in support in general may hit a wall in some ridings when the voter realized who their NDP candidate actually is; and make it easier for the BQ to draw the voters back.

However, these numbers can’t be ignored and will have an impact. If they hold, it’s a disaster first and foremost for the BQ, a prospect that even the most anti-socialist Albertan redneck will be relishing. And it could mean a sea change in Canadian politics.

Eliminating the BQ from the coalition calculation, and you have a very manageable minority situation with the Liberals and NDP. The forum research poll referenced here: http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in_reach_of_official_opposition_says_new_forum_research_poll_04-21-2011 suggests 149 seats for the Tories, 71 for the NDP and 64 for the Liberals, with the BQ down to 24. Now I hate predictions of seat distribution from polls (a site like http://www.electionprediction.org/ , looking at it seat by seat, is much more indicative) but if this follows suit, it won’t take much for the NDP and the Liberals (combined here at 135 seats) to overtake the Tories – just 7 seats, well within the swings in the next few days.

And with the BQ’s hold on Quebec broken, even more ridings will now be in play. NDP results in Quebec will also strengthen the hand of Mulcair, the most obvious successor to Layton, in winning the leadership.

And think about this; if the Liberals lose seats, or worse come in third, like it or not Ignatieff’s days are numbered. Bob Rae – a former NDP MP, MPP, and Premier, could become Liberal leader, with Mulcair – a former Liberal MNA and provincial cabinet minister – his counterpart in the NDP. That’ll crank up the debate on “merging the left”….